Meydan (23/1/14): Sectional Review

Preamble

The debate about the merit of sectionals appeared to go up a notch in recent weeks, especially on twitter, although my twitter timeline might be skewed toward such a debate. Whether the increased interest leads to any action from those who make decisions is probably an altogether more depressing and frustrating debate. (a pair of braces might be a more pressing investment after they (the BHA) pulled their own pants down with the recent Curley gamble.)

Weighing in with my two penneth, I would love to see sectionals in the UK. In an effort to learn about sectionals and pace I started compiling sectionals by hand with a stopwatch, later using simple editing software, but it was either time consuming going through a whole card or it was error strewn as I rushed the job, so rather than struggle on I looked across the pond where sectionals are provided. Thanks to Trakus, I now have a very healthy database of sectionals across different distances from Gulfstream Park from which I’ve learnt, and continue to learn, it has been a richly rewarding exercise, and I don’t necessarily mean in a monetary sense. I still follow racing in the UK, only not as avidly and I certainly don’t bet as much as I did. However, as enjoyable as I am finding my exploration into US racing (with the occasional glance at Meydan like this post, and a curious eye on Hong Kong), I would much prefer to cast my eye over the more familiar characters of the UK, investing my time, passion, interest, and the occasional two penneth into UK racing. Until that day comes, I will be offshore and somewhat adrift, longing for good ol’ blighty to catch up with the (sectional) times.

The regular Sectional Debriefs by Simon Rowlands have helped enormously in arousing interest in UK AW sectionals, they got me interested last winter. After checking if Simon would be covering Meydan where sectionals are provided by Trakus, it became clear there was room for an amateur like me to wade in, hopefully without muddying the waters.

Most of my work has been done in R, but the work mainly involves cleaning and manipulating the sectional data, calculating Finishing Speeds and individual sectionals from the cumulative sectionals (found on Trakus’ printable sectionals pages, example here). Distance raced data has been tediously added by scrolling through link after link, it’s a frustrating 15-20minutes but it’s usually worth it as sectional speeds can be calculated, it’s a process that can help reveal errors, as it did for Race 2 at Meydan (at the time of writing – Friday afternoon – the times for race 2 have been taken down). Finishing Speeds are occasionally included, however I still only have a very small number of races per distance/surface so par Finishing Speeds can’t shed more light, though comparisons between runners can still be enlightening. The graphs on the page have mostly been created in Excel, I’m still learning about the wonderful ggplot2 package in R. I will perhaps walk through my R code in a separate post as it is a little convoluted, and as mentioned is primarily about cleaning and manipulating the cumulative sectionals.

[For anyone interested, “R is a free software programming language and software environment for statistical computing and graphics” (wiki) and can be downloaded here, I recommend using RStudio, it’s a little effort to understand at first if you’re unfamiliar with programming languages (as I was), but there is plenty of help online and it quickly becomes worth the effort (it’s something I wouldn’t have even considered learning had I not begun looking at sectionals).]

Race 1

Race 1, a 6f Hcp was won by Jamesie, from Merhee in 2nd and Masamah in 3rd. Jamesie was drawn in gate 3, Merhee in gate 2, the former was pretty sluggish from the gate, while Merhee showed good early speed, eventually leading round the turn and forcing Mujaazef to race a shade wide. Jamesie lost very little from his sluggish start, he was able to move past the even more sluggish Spirit Of Battle, and sit mid pack on the rail, saving valuable ground.

Below are the cumulative sectionals (“c200” time after 200m, “c600” time after 600m, etc) and the Finishing Speeds (“FS1000” is the finishing speed over the final 1000m, etc). The margins between Jamesie and Merhee only began to close inside the final couple of furlongs, but with a furlong to go, Merhee, who last raced in July, led by 0.32 seconds only to fall into a hole, recording a finishing speed of 0.958 (or 95.8%), a sharp decrease from the 2f finishing speed he recorded of 0.994 (99.4%). Jamesie on the other hand recorded the fastest 1f finishing speed of the race with 0.994 (99.4%). Both horses had similar trips, covering 1213m each, the difference was the slower early pace Jamesie went, perhaps coupled Merhee lacking a little bit of fitness. Par Finishing speeds would be able to shed more light, so I will try to return with them in tow at a later date, or at least in future Meydan posts.

Pos                  Horse  c200  c400  c600  c800 c1000 c1200 FS1000 FS800 FS600 FS400 FS200
 1           jamesie (ire) 14.29 25.20 36.68 48.28 59.74 71.77  1.041 1.027 1.023 1.018 0.994
 2            merhee (aus) 13.93 24.76 36.13 47.81 59.42 71.93  1.033 1.017 1.005 0.994 0.958
 3           masamah (ire) 13.91 24.88 36.45 48.08 59.59 71.98  1.033 1.019 1.013 1.004 0.968
 4           mujaazef (gb) 13.77 24.77 36.23 47.88 59.40 72.13  1.030 1.015 1.005 0.991 0.944
 5  spirit of battle (usa) 14.53 25.49 36.98 48.58 60.04 72.17  1.043 1.031 1.025 1.020 0.992
 6               racy (gb) 14.23 25.25 36.77 48.48 59.94 72.26  1.038 1.025 1.018 1.013 0.978
 7 proud possibility (usa) 13.86 25.00 36.43 48.09 59.75 72.31  1.031 1.019 1.008 0.995 0.960
 8           lui rei (ity) 14.46 25.52 36.94 48.60 60.15 72.44  1.041 1.029 1.020 1.013 0.982
 9         alraihjan (ksa) 14.37 25.66 37.00 48.51 60.00 72.52  1.039 1.032 1.021 1.007 0.965
10       arnold lane (ire) 14.14 25.13 36.65 48.39 59.99 72.61  1.035 1.020 1.010 0.999 0.959
11       intransigent (gb) 14.16 25.36 36.79 48.36 59.96 72.76  1.035 1.023 1.011 0.994 0.947
12        red dubawi (ire) 14.35 25.38 36.83 48.52 60.33 73.11  1.037 1.021 1.008 0.991 0.953
13      master of war (gb) 14.06 25.14 36.60 48.32 60.09 73.17  1.032 1.016 1.000 0.981 0.932
14 tennessee wildcat (ire) 14.00 25.13 36.62 48.37 60.40 74.16  1.027 1.008 0.988 0.959 0.898

The eventual 3rd (Masamah) and 4th (Mujaazef) had very different trips to the front two, covering 1220m and 1217m respectively. The affect can be seen in the Sectional Speed chart below. The turn, which roughly occurs between 400m (sectional “c400” above) and 800m (“c800”), sees the vast majority of ground loss, Masamah and Mujaazef can be seen in the graph below to be recording faster speeds than the front two. However, Masamah went into the turn ~0.12 seconds down on the leaders (Merhee and Mujaazef), but came out of the turn ~0.27 down, while covering that part of the race in an average speed of 17.72m/s, compared to Merhee (17.57m/s) and Jamesie (17.46m/s).

With this under his belt, Merhee should be fitter for next time, but whether he will get such a prime opportunity to lead and control affairs from such a good draw is questionable. Spirit Of Battle is another interesting horse to take from the race, he started slowly and was niggled along, perhaps lacking a bit of race fitness after being off the track for over 9months, but he finished the race well, saving ground and a slow early pace will have played a part in his finishing fast (highest FS600 with 1.025 (102.5%) and highest FS400 with 1.020 (102.0%)), but it was a decent sharpener against fitter rivals.

Race 3

Race 3, an 8f handicap, resulted in a bunched finish, with Alexandra Palace rushing down the outside to get up inside the final furlong. The front five, Free Wheeling (2nd), Capital Attraction (3rd), Disa Leader (4th) and Solar Deity (5th), were separated by under a length at the finish (0.14 seconds).

The story of the winners race is likely to be the wide trip he endured from Gate 15, just as Jamesie and Spirit Of Battles gates in race 1 dictated their trip, Gate 15 played a significant role in Alexandra Palace’s. Soumillon was forced to bear a wide trip, travelling 6m more than the 2nd, 15m more than the 3rd, 7m more than the 4th, and 8m more than the 5th. As such, he had to travel faster round the turns in order to maintain position, however, the pace round the turn had begun to ease. The two furlongs prior to entering the turn the leader (Not A Given) set a time of 22.91seconds, but round the turn Not A Given now lead with Solar Deity, running the turn in 24.79. The Sectional Speed graph below, and especially the speeds of Capital Attraction, helps show the easing in pace; the bend occurs after 800m and continues for 400m to 1200m, in this sectional Capital Attraction raced on the inside in around 4th position, the dip in speed clear. The other 3 runners in the picture were all much wider but they weren’t taken out of their comfort zone.

Soumillon from the wide draw was a little trapped, forced to sit wide, and he was probably aided by the pace easing off round the turn, but he did well to wait until he was clearly in the straight, at which point he asked his mount to quicken. Alexandra Palace threw down an 11.37 sectional from 1200m to 1400m, taking out 0.29seconds out of the new leader Free Wheeling, the final 200m was run in 11.79, taking another 0.27 out of Free Wheeling, and finishing 0.08seconds in front.

The Finishing Speeds of nearly all runners tell a similar story as the sectional speeds, I am not sure how clear the graph below is, finding a way to describe events graphically is a challenge so please offer suggestions to improve clarity, but it shows the Finishing Speeds of all runners, coloured according to Final Position. The points have been “jittered”, which means a tiny amount of random noise has been added to help separate and distinguish points, the y-values are accurate, with the noise only added to the x values.

Race 4

Race 4 was a 10 runner 10f handicap, with Windhoek getting up late to win from Layali Al Andalus (2nd), Mutajare (3rd) and Plantagenet (4th). Over the opening 1200m, Izaaj led the field, setting a very even pace, the sectionals recorded by Izaaj are highlighted in red below. “i1200” in the table below marks the time recorded over the 200m prior to the turn for home, around the turn Izaaj began to slow up, and this almost invited the move by Plantagenet, who ran completed the 2nd 200m round the turn in 11.77 (highlighted in turquoise below), while incurring ground loss as he was forced wide.

Pos                  Horse  i400  i600  i800 i1000 i1200 i1400 i1600 i1800 i2000
  1          windhoek (gb) 27.04 12.47 12.35 12.03 12.24 12.29 12.01 11.60 12.23
  2 layali al andalus (gb) 27.25 12.29 12.21 12.21 12.41 12.17 12.01 11.63 12.10
  3         mutajare (ire) 26.46 12.27 12.26 12.27 12.26 12.61 12.12 11.89 12.15
  4      plantagenet (spa) 27.07 12.30 12.23 12.07 12.17 12.24 11.77 12.01 12.59
  5        manalapan (ire) 27.10 12.06 12.24 12.00 12.18 12.70 11.92 11.77 12.50
  6         banoffee (ire) 26.75 12.24 12.27 12.17 12.30 12.55 12.29 11.72 12.26
  7   sweet lightning (gb) 27.33 12.41 12.29 12.21 12.21 12.18 12.03 12.00 12.71
  8          zip top (ire) 27.04 12.23 12.21 12.21 12.41 12.40 12.13 12.09 13.34
  9            izaaj (usa) 26.09 12.15 12.33 12.43 12.30 12.64 12.29 12.96 13.38
 10  daddy long legs (usa) 26.63 12.29 12.21 12.06 12.21 12.70 12.35 13.04 15.32

With that aggressive move, Plantagent’s jockey Per-Anders Graberg opened up a lead of over 0.38seconds to Izaaj, and a bigger advantage over the eventual front 3. Throughout the race Windhoek had tracked Plantagenet, and even when Graberg pushed the button on Plantagenet it looked like Windhoek would track the move, however Manalpan seemed to delay Windhoek albeit very briefly. The sectional speed (which is calculated using Trakus’ distance raced data and sectionals) graph below captures the aggressive move by Plantagenet round the final 200m of the turn for home, it also sees Windhoek looking to make a similar move, only not quite as agressive. Instead he was delayed and made up ground in the straight when ground loss would have been kept to a bare minimum.

Meanwhile, Plantagenet as soon as he entered the straight, was struggling, and was quickly swallowed up by Layali Al Andalus, Mutajare and Windhoek, and in a stride or two more 5th placed Manalpan would have caught him too. I don’t know much about Per-Anders Graberg as a jockey, I think he probably asked his mount to go win the race too soon, but I like my jockeys to be proactive, to react to opportunities. With the pace easing round the turn there was an opportunity to grab the race by the scruff of the neck, but the margins between defeat and victory are often very fine.

Race 5

Race 5, a Group 2 over 7f, was won by Anaerobio, from Mshawish (2nd) and Pearl Flute (3rd). Anaerobio was drawn in Gate 1, securing the rail, Pearl Flute was drawn in Gate 3 and lead for much of the way. Pearl Flute and Jamie Spencer set a dawdling pace, which obviously aided those sitting prominent, Pearl Flute covered the opening 400m in 26.26, a time that was slower than the preceding race which was run over 600m further. The plot below is another plot created in R, this time showing the sectionals recorded, once again a little bit of noise (x-values only) has been added to help distinguish points. The opening 200m was the slowest of the race, unsurprising, but all runners ran faster and faster sectionals, having crawled early. The final furlong saw runners slow toward the finish, either due to the effort they put in in attempting to win the race (which only applies to the front 3, ridden smartly by Soumillon, Dettori and Spencer), or because they were never in contention after being content to sit behind an incredibly slow pace (ridden by 11 jockeys who were possibly asleep).

Race 6

Race 6, a 9f Handicap, saw Jamie Spencer win with an extremely willing partner in Gabrial. El Estruendoso finished 2nd, having been caught late, while Tarbawi (3rd) made an effort up the inside but never had his nose in front. Gabrial was very slowly away, after 400m he trailed the leaders by ~1.30 seconds, he wasn’t rushed by Spencer to close the gap, allowed to make up lost ground in his own time. Rounding the turn for home, Gabrial had begun to make his way through the field, but even with 400m to go, he was 0.57seconds down on El Estruendoso, and with 200m to go he was 0.43seconds down. Below are the Finishing Speeds of runners, it was a combination of Gabrial finishing fast (with a finishing speed over the final 200m of 1.003, or 100.3%) and El Estruendoso coming back to him (with a final 200m finishing speed of 0.967, or 96.7%) after forging clear over the penultimate 200m:

Pos                Horse FS1600 FS1400 FS1200 FS1000 FS800 FS600 FS400 FS200
  1        gabrial (ire)  1.038  1.036  1.034  1.026 1.031 1.031 1.026 1.003
  2 el estruendoso (arg)  1.028  1.025  1.019  1.013 1.015 1.013 1.001 0.967
  3        tarbawi (ire)  1.031  1.028  1.022  1.016 1.019 1.016 1.002 0.980
  4     sanshaawes (saf)  1.029  1.027  1.022  1.015 1.018 1.014 1.000 0.996
  5          vasily (gb)  1.025  1.021  1.013  1.006 1.003 0.996 0.977 0.952
  6        elleval (ire)  1.035  1.032  1.029  1.018 1.019 1.014 0.999 0.973
  7        auditor (usa)  1.026  1.023  1.016  1.008 1.007 1.005 0.984 0.955
  8       starboard (gb)  1.030  1.026  1.021  1.013 1.014 1.004 0.984 0.947
  9     war monger (usa)  1.023  1.016  1.005  0.994 0.989 0.977 0.948 0.910
 10  fantastic moon (gb)  1.028  1.021  1.013  1.000 0.993 0.981 0.955 0.903
 11      do it all (usa)  1.021  1.014  1.002  0.988 0.979 0.962 0.925 0.844
 12    without fear (fr)  1.018  1.009  0.995  0.981 0.972 0.950 0.917 0.862

I’ll leave Meydan there, I’ll try cover future Meydan fixtures in an effort to build up par Finishing Speeds, but any comments about the graphs, suggestions to improve clarity would be appreciated.

Post-ramble

Trakus data is clearly very rich, however there are a few problems with the presentation and especially ease of access. Trakus’ sectional data is easy to find (either on their website or often hosted on the websites of tracks they service, Trakus for Meydan can be found here), but if you wish to delve in to the data that sets them apart (the distance raced data) then you have to scroll through link after link, and none of it is available in an easy to download and work with format. However, Trakus are far from alone in this respect, racing as a whole (both in the UK and the US, in my limited experience), could do a lot more to make the wealth of information about the participants of the sport (the horses, the trainers, the jockeys) much more accessible to the sports patrons and prospective patrons.